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In the wake of a record-breaking heat wave, total power consumption is expected to hit new highs in 2024, according to the Energy Information Administration.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA expects demand will be about 2% higher during the second half of this year compared to the same period in 2023. Total consumption is expected to reach 4,123 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, compared to 4,000 billion kWh in 2023. The agency projects even higher demand in 2025—4,197 billion kWh.
Among the factors driving high electricity demand is the rapid development of data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations, according to a recent edition of EIA's Today in Energy. Commercial demand in the 10 states with the most demand growth jumped 42 billion kWh between 2019 and 2023.
Virginia tops the list of states with the highest commercial demand growth, followed by Texas, South Carolina, Arizona, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah, Nevada and Oregon.
“Virginia has become a major hub for data centers, with 94 new facilities connected since 2019, given the access to a densely packed fiber backbone and four subsea fiber cables," the report said.
July's Short-Term Energy Outlook said that demand spikes will drive natural gas prices 36% higher in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half—a trend that will likely lead utilities to lean on less expensive fuel sources, including coal and solar.
EIA expects 42% more electricity generation from solar, 6% more from wind, 4% more from hydropower and 3% more from coal for the second half of 2024 compared to the same period last year.
During the first half of 2024, electricity generation grew 5% as more Americans cranked up their air conditioners to cope with hotter-than-normal temperatures, the report said.
“The increase in electricity demand paired with a decrease in natural gas generation creates a gap between the power we need and the power being produced," EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a press release.