Fewer hurricanes than normal are expected to slam the Atlantic Basin this year, but it only takes one to cause devastating damage, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters said at a May 21 news conference.

In their 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, experts predicted a below-normal season, with eight to 14 named storms. Their forecast calls for three to six of those storms to become hurricanes, with one to three of those reaching major hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Last year, there were five hurricanes, with four of those classified as major. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three that are major, NOAA officials said.

NOAA’s outlook for this year’s hurricane season, which runs June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

The last time NOAA predicted a below-normal hurricane season was more than a decade ago, in 2015. The agency said its confidence level for this year’s forecast is 70%.

The forecast is based in large part on the expectation that an El Niño will develop and intensify during the season. El Niño conditions typically mean fewer tropical storms and hurricanes.

However, there also will be some factors competing with El Niño, NOAA officials said. Atlantic Ocean temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are predicted to be weaker than average. Warmer ocean temperatures and low winds usually mean a more active hurricane season.

While the federal forecasters predicted fewer hurricanes, they warned Americans not to ignore the potential danger.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.

“That’s why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said the agency will use advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones and “next-generation” satellite data, to provide hurricane forecasts to Americans as quickly as possible.

“These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”